The world is experiencing a demographic transformation that would have seemed almost unimaginable during the population scares of the twentieth century. Birth rates have fallen below replacement level across most of the world, with the global fertility rate having dropped by more than half since 1950. Across OECD nations, women now average just 1.46 children—far below the roughly 2.1 needed for one generation to replace itself. China has entered its fourth consecutive year of population decline, South Korea's population has been shrinking since 2019, and countries including Japan, Italy, Greece, Cuba, and Thailand are already experiencing depopulation. Even nations such as Britain and Australia increasingly depend upon immigration to offset the widening gap between births and deaths. Current projections indicate the world's total population could begin declining by the mid-2080s.
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Joe Hawkins
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