Israel has warned Washington that upcoming missile exercises by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could be used as cover for preparations for a surprise attack on Israeli territory, according to a report by Axios. While Israeli intelligence currently assesses the likelihood of an imminent strike as below 50 percent, officials say the security environment has fundamentally changed since October 7. “No one is willing to take the risk of assuming this is just an exercise,” one Israeli source said, underscoring how Israel’s tolerance for ambiguity has sharply diminished.

U.S. officials have reportedly found no concrete evidence that Iran is actively preparing to strike, but both sides fear a dangerous escalation driven by miscalculation. In such a scenario, mutual suspicion could push either party toward preemptive action. Against this backdrop, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir raised the issue directly with CENTCOM Commander Adm. Brad Cooper, urging readiness should IRGC maneuvers conceal a real attack. The warning highlights how quickly regional tensions could ignite—and how military “exercises” may now be viewed as potential battle preludes rather than routine drills.

SOURCE: i24 News