Tensions between Israel and Turkey are increasingly converging inside Syria, where Ankara’s growing influence is raising concerns in Jerusalem about what could eventually emerge along Israel’s northern frontier. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan accused Israel of deliberately destabilizing Syria after an Israeli strike last month on the disused Abu Duhur airbase. Israeli officials said the strike was intended to prevent Turkish troops from deploying there, although Ankara denied plans for such a deployment. During a visit to Damascus, Fidan portrayed Israel as the primary obstacle to Syria’s stabilization, while Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani condemned the Israeli strike as an attempt to undermine the rebuilding of the Syrian state. Behind the diplomatic accusations lies a larger struggle over Syria’s future: Turkey is expanding its relationship with Damascus while Israel is watching closely to ensure that Syria does not become the staging ground for another powerful military threat on its border.
Turkey’s influence is already extending well beyond rhetoric. Ankara and Damascus have reportedly reached around 40 agreements and memoranda of understanding connecting 22 Syrian ministries and government agencies with Turkish counterparts, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to visit Syria. Prof. Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told The Jerusalem Post that Israel would actually benefit from a stable Syrian government capable of controlling its borders and potentially becoming a partner for peace. The problem, he argued, is the prospect of Syria falling increasingly under Turkish influence. Inbar pointed to Erdogan’s hostile rhetoric toward Israel and what he described as Ankara’s “neo-Islamic and neo-Ottoman” ambitions as reasons Jerusalem cannot ignore expanding Turkish capabilities in Syria. Israel therefore faces a complicated dilemma: instability in Syria creates its own dangers, but a stronger Syria increasingly aligned with an openly hostile Turkey could eventually present an even more formidable strategic challenge.
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