Vice President JD Vance is warning that the confrontation with Iran has implications far beyond the Middle East, arguing that a U.S. withdrawal from the region while Tehran continues targeting commercial shipping could trigger a “worldwide energy crisis.” Speaking at the All-In Summit, Vance defended the administration’s continued military involvement by arguing that keeping America out of unnecessary foreign entanglements does not mean refusing to use military force when U.S. interests are threatened. He said American operations have inflicted substantial damage on Iran’s nuclear program and conventional military capabilities, but accused Iranian forces of continuing attacks against commercial shipping even while peace negotiations are underway. His central argument was economic as much as military: keeping oil and natural gas moving through the region is critical to a global economy heavily dependent upon Middle Eastern energy.
The numbers demonstrate why the waterways surrounding Iran matter so much. The Strait of Hormuz historically carried roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, but commercial traffic has fallen dramatically amid the conflict. Reuters reported that only four vessels crossed the strait Tuesday, compared with a prewar average of roughly 125 daily transits; preliminary data showed the number falling to just three on Wednesday. Meanwhile, attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure have threatened alternative export routes, forcing Riyadh to improvise new methods for moving crude around disrupted corridors. Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel Thursday, while energy executives have warned that the mechanisms normally used to cushion global supply shocks are weakening. In other words, this is no longer merely a regional military confrontation. What happens along a narrow strip of water beside Iran can affect fuel prices, transportation, manufacturing, food costs, and economies thousands of miles away.
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