Decline in marriage and relationships among factors driving global fertility slump - study
The world is experiencing what researchers are calling a “global fertility freefall,” and the latest evidence suggests the problem runs much deeper than the cost of housing or childcare. A major study led by demographer Tomáš Sobotka of the Vienna Institute of Demography found that more than 2 billion people—over one-quarter of humanity—now live in countries where fertility has fallen below 1.3 children per woman, a level that would eventually produce rapidly shrinking populations without substantial immigration. More than half of the global population now lives in countries at or below the replacement level of roughly 2.1 children per woman. Researchers say the decline is more widespread, deeper, and potentially more permanent than earlier fertility downturns, driven by a combination of economic insecurity, delayed parenthood, changing attitudes toward children, contraception, anxiety about the future, and what some researchers have described as a growing “relationship recession.”
One of the most significant factors may be something much more fundamental: fewer people are forming lasting relationships and getting married. Growing numbers of adults are reaching their 20s, 30s, and even 40s without a spouse or romantic partner, dramatically reducing the number entering the stable relationships in which most children are still born. At the same time, parenthood is increasingly postponed or viewed as optional, the traditional expectation of having two children is weakening, and intentional childlessness has become more culturally accepted. Technology may be contributing as well, with researchers examining whether increased internet and smartphone use is reducing face-to-face social interaction and relationship formation. Yet the desire for family has not disappeared. A recent international UN survey found 70% of young adults still want to marry, while many who want children expect to have fewer than they desire because of finances, housing, health concerns, or difficulty finding a suitable partner. The crisis, then, is not simply that people cannot afford children—it is that modern society is increasingly struggling to form the relationships from which families traditionally grow.
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